Risk/Reward archive
In 2022, Citius Pharmaceuticals completed its Phase 3 trial for I/ONTAK, indicated for the treatment of persistent or recurrent cutaneous T-cell lymphoma (CTCL) and submitted its Biologics Licensing Application to the FDA. It has a PDUFA target date…
Continue reading →Toll Brothers reported fiscal 22Q4 results that were much stronger than I anticipated. 22Q4 diluted earnings per share were $5.63 up 86% from $3.02 in 21Q4 and better than my estimate of $3.93. Excluding a $140 million (estimated…
Continue reading →GE Healthcare Technologies (GEHC) will be spun-off from General Electric Company (GE) on January 4, 2023. Under the terms of the spin-off, GE shareholders will receive one share of GEHC for every three shares of GE that they…
Continue reading →HPE reported a 22Q4 GAAP loss of $0.23 per diluted share vs. earnings of $0.31 in 21Q4. My estimate called for earnings of $0.37. All of the shortfall was due to a $905 million ($0.68 per share) goodwill…
Continue reading →Campbell Soup Company (CPB) reported much stronger than expected 23Q1 net sales and profits (vs. my estimates). Net sales were $2.58 billion, 15% above 22Q1 and 9% above my estimate. Diluted Non-GAAP EPS was $1.02, up 14% YOY…
Continue reading →Housing market data from the U.S. Commerce Dept. and others show sales and production falling at a rapid rate. The seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) of single-family housing starts and building permits has fallen for eight consecutive months…
Continue reading →NJR reported 22Q4 GAAP net income of $0.56 per diluted share and net financial earnings (NFE), a non-GAAP measure, of $0.50 per basic share. That compares with the 21Q4 GAAP loss of $0.01 per share and NFE per…
Continue reading →Mistras Group reported 22Q3 EPS of $0.14, above 21Q3’s $0.11 and my estimate of $0.23. Revenues of $178.5 million were 2.2% above the year earlier period but also below my expectations. My projections were in line with the…
Continue reading →22Q3 net income attributable to shareholders was $23.0 million or $1.19 per diluted share, compared with 21Q3’s $23.1 million or $01.06 per share. Revenues grew 17.0% to $250.8 million, but operating expenses rose 19.8% to $152.9 million. The…
Continue reading →AlerisLife reported a 22Q3 net loss of $8.5 million or $0.27 per share, better than the 22Q2 loss of $8.8 million or $0.28 per share and the 21Q3 loss of $10.2 million or $0.32 per share. I had…
Continue reading →22Q3 GAAP loss was $0.34 per share and normalized FFO was –$0.06 per share, below my forecast of ‑$0.23 and +$0.01, respectively. The Office Portfolio met expectations, but Senior Housing Operating Portfolio (SHOP) results were disappointing as improved…
Continue reading →22Q3 revenues were $1.537 billion, down 3.9% year-over-year, but up 3% at constant currency. GAAP diluted EPS was $0.92, below 21Q3’s $1.27, but above my estimate of $0.82. Non-GAAP EPS of $1.36 was below last year’s $1.61, but…
Continue reading →22Q3 sales rose 13.7% to $15.0 billion with double-digit gains in KEYTRUDA and GARDASIL/GARDASIL 9. GAAP diluted EPS fell 29.0% to $1.28; but non-GAAP diluted EPS rose 5.6% to $1.85. The company recorded an $887 million ($0.27 per…
Continue reading →AWK reported 22Q3 EPS of $1.63, up 6.5% from $1.53 in 21Q3 and above my estimate of $1.52. Operating revenues decreased 0.9% to $1.08 billion, as regulatory rate increases were more than offset by lost revenues from the…
Continue reading →Public Service Enterprise Group (PEG) reported 22Q3 operating revenues of $2.27 billion, up 19.4% from 21Q3. The increase in revenues was due mostly to higher gas supply sales to third parties at PEG Power and higher commodity revenues,…
Continue reading →22Q3 revenue declined 3.5% to $11.2 billion, mostly because of a drop in Revlimid sales due to patent expiry. GAAP EPS increased 8.5% to $0.75, but that was slightly below my estimate of $0.77, due mostly to a…
Continue reading →GE announced 22Q3 revenues of $19.5 billion, up 0.5% year-over-year, a GAAP loss per share of $0.14, compared with 21Q3’s $0.54 profit, and non-GAAP EPS of $0.35, below 21Q3’s $0.53. I had anticipated a GAAP EPS of $0.44…
Continue reading →BKR reported a 22Q3 GAAP net loss of $0.02 per share vs. 21Q3’s profit of $0.01. Non-GAAP adjusted EPS was $0.26 vs. $0.16. I had anticipated 22Q3 GAAP EPS of $0.18 and Non-GAAP EPS of $0.30. BKR’s 22Q3…
Continue reading →NJR reported 22Q3 GAAP net income of $0.14 per diluted share and a net financial loss (a non-GAAP measure) of $0.04. That compares with the 21Q3 GAAP loss of $1.16, owing to an impairment charge on its investment…
Continue reading →The average rate on the 30-year mortgage has risen above 6.00% in response to the latest hike in the Fed Funds target rate. Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey pegged the average rate at 6.29% this week. The…
Continue reading →Five years after its merger with GE Oil & Gas, Baker Hughes Company (BKR) is adjusting to changes in its market environment, including the fallout from the war in Ukraine, supply chain disruptions, inflation and challenges and opportunities…
Continue reading →Fiscal 22Q4 net sales of $2.0 billion increased 6.1% YOY. GAAP diluted EPS was $0.32, below 21Q4’s $0.95. Non-GAAP adjusted EPS of $0.56 exceeded 21Q4’s $0.52. These results were generally in line with my expectations.
Continue reading →HPE’s 22Q3 GAAP diluted EPS was $0.31 vs. $0.29 in 21Q3 and better than my estimate of $0.26. Non-GAAP EPS was $0.48, compared with $0.47 last year and my estimate of $0.46. Net revenue of $6.95 billion exceeded…
Continue reading →The stock market fell 3.3% on Friday, following Fed Chairman Jay Powell’s speech on monetary policy at the Jackson Hole Fed meeting. Mr. Powell affirmed the Federal Reserve’s commitment to bring inflation down, which will probably take some…
Continue reading →Toll Brothers’ 22Q3 EPS was $2.35, up 25.7% from 21Q3’s $1.87 and above my estimate of $2.22. Revenues increased 10.6% to $2.49 billion, slightly below my projections. Deliveries of 2,414 units fell 7.1%, more than expected, but the…
Continue reading →Despite an accelerating slide in housing sales and production following this year’s rise in mortgage rates, my homebuilder stock price index has performed in line with its benchmarks since April. At current prices, homebuilding stocks trade at less…
Continue reading →Citius Pharmaceuticals reported a third quarter loss of $8.9 million or $0.06 per share, compared with last year’s loss of $7.3 million or $0.05 per share. As an early stage drug development company, Citius currently generates no revenues. …
Continue reading →22Q2 GAAP loss was $0.46 per share and normalized FFO -$0.04 per share, below my forecast of -$0.42 and +$0.01, respectively. The Office Portfolio disappointed again, raising concerns about declining occupancy. Senior Housing Operating Portfolio (SHOP) results met…
Continue reading →AlerisLife reported a 22Q2 net loss of $8.8 million or $0.28 per share, better than the 22Q1 loss of $9.7 million or $0.31 per share and the 21Q2 loss of $12.3 million or $0.39 per share. I had…
Continue reading →2022 second quarter net income attributable to shareholders was $17.8 million or $0.87 per diluted share, compared with 21Q2’s $19.5 million or $0.93 per share. The decline in EPS occurred despite a 21.8% increase in revenues to $235.6…
Continue reading →Mistras Group reported 22Q2 EPS of $0.15, below 21Q2’s $0.20 and my estimate of $0.18. Revenues of $179.0 million were 0.8% above the year earlier period and also below my expectations. While revenues were essentially flat, gross margin…
Continue reading →22Q2 revenues of $1.585 billion were flat year-over-year, but up 5% at constant currency. GAAP EPS of $0.92, was below 21Q2’s $1.68 and also below my $1.11 estimate. Non-GAAP EPS of $1.25 was below last year’s $1.72 and…
Continue reading →Public Service Enterprise Group (PEG) reported 22Q2 operating revenues of $2.08 billion, up 10.8% from 21Q2. GAAP EPS was $0.26 vs. a loss of $0.35 a year ago. Most of last year’s loss was related to a net…
Continue reading →22Q2 sales increased 28% to $14.6 billion, with LAGEVRIO sales of $1.2 billion, a 26% increase in KEYTRUDA sales to $5.3 billion and a 36% increase in GARDASIL/GARDASIL 9 sales to $1.7 billion. GAAP diluted EPS from continuing…
Continue reading →American Water Works Company (AWK) reported 22Q2 EPS of $1.20, up 5% from $1.14 in 21Q2. Operating revenues decreased 6.2% to $937 million, mostly due to the sale of the Homeowner Services (HOS) and New York American Water…
Continue reading →22Q2 revenues were higher, GAAP earnings lower and non-GAAP earnings higher than anticipated. Management reduced its 2022 revenue guidance by $1 million to $46 billion due to foreign currency headwinds. It also lowered its GAAP EPS guidance, but…
Continue reading →General Electric Company (GE) announced 22Q2 revenues of $18.6 billion, up 2.4% year-over-year, a GAAP loss per share of $0.59, two cents worse than 21Q2’s $0.57 loss, and non-GAAP EPS of $0.78, above 21Q2’s $0.22. I had anticipated…
Continue reading →Hewlett Packard Enterprise Company’s performance during the first half of fiscal 2022 was somewhat disappointing, due primarily to the residual disruptions from the pandemic and more recent developments, including the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. Although its order…
Continue reading →2022 first quarter net income from continuing operations attributable to shareholders was $16.0 million or $0.76 per diluted share, compared with 21Q1’s $3.1 million or $0.16 per share. Revenues improved to $195.1 million from $146.4 million.
Continue reading →Earlier today, Citius Pharmaceuticals issued a press release announcing its intention to spin-off its late stage oncology candidate, I/ONTAK, to a new, standalone publicly-traded company. In making the announcement, the company said that it believed that the market…
Continue reading →22Q1 In Line with Expectations. Maintaining Performance Rating and Price Target. 22Q1 GAAP earnings were $1.01 per share and normalized FFO –$0.09 per share, in line with my expectations of $1.04 and –$0.06. Excluding a $327.8 million gain…
Continue reading →22Q1 Loss of $0.30 in Line with Expectations; Katie Potter Steps Down as CEO; ALR Hires Alvarez & Marsal to Conduct a Comprehensive Operational Review AlerisLife reported a 22Q1 net loss of $9.7 million or $0.31 per diluted…
Continue reading →Since reporting disappoint 22Q1 results on April 26, GE’s stock has fallen sharply. Year-to-date, GE’s stock is down 22.6%, worse than the S&P 500 Industrial sector’s 11.7% decline.
Continue reading →Citius Pharmaceuticals (CXTR) is a specialty pharmaceutical company focused on the development of five potential products: (1) Mino-Lok, an antibiotic lock solution to treat and salvage infected central venous catheters (CVCs) in patients with catheter-related bloodstream infections (CRBSIs);…
Continue reading →21Q4 Results Below Expectations, Lowering 2022 Estimates, Reducing Rating and Price Target Mistras Group reported 21Q4 EPS of $0.00, slightly worse than 20Q4’s $0.01 and below my estimate of $0.06. Revenues of $171.2 million were 6.5% above the…
Continue reading →Homebuilding stocks have had a rough 2022. Year-to-date (through 4/12), my equal-weighted index of 11 publicly-traded U.S. homebuilders has fallen 34.8%. That compares with declines of 7.7% in the S&P 500 and 11.5% in the Russell 2000. Following…
Continue reading →The stocks of large pharmaceutical companies, including Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY) and Merck & Co. (MRK), which I follow, have outperformed the market significantly so far this year. The pharmaceuticals sector, as measured by the NYSE Arca Pharmaceuticals Index…
Continue reading →Lowering Estimates and Safety Rating, Withdrawing Performance Rating and Price Target AlerisLife Inc. (ALR), formerly known as Five Star Senior Living, reported a fourth quarter net loss of $10.7 million or $0.34 per share, slightly worse than the…
Continue reading →Since my last report on December 9, 2021, Toll’s stock has fallen 26.3%, much more than the S&P Mid-Cap 400’s 2.6% decline. As I noted back then, shares of Toll and other homebuilders were ripe for a correction…
Continue reading →Establishing 2022 and 2023 Estimates, Maintaining Outperform Rating, Setting $85 Price Target Following the spin-off of Organon, Merck is focused on growing its pharmaceuticals business to offset the looming loss of exclusivity on its $5 billion Januvia/Janumet franchise…
Continue reading →Lowering Estimates for 2022 and Adding 2023, Lowering Price Target to $5.00 DHC reported 21Q4 normalized FFO of –$0.09 per share, compared with 21Q3’s ‑$0.05 and 20Q4’s +$0.09. Although the Office portfolio posted another solid quarter and the…
Continue reading →Raising 2022 Estimate and Adding 2023, Maintaining Outperform Rating and Price Target of $73 Bristol-Myers Squibb Company (BMS) achieved many operational milestones in 2021, advancing its development pipeline through clinical trials, new drug applications and regulatory approvals. At…
Continue reading →Estimated Returns by Sectors, Industry Groups and Industries Large cap stocks, as measured by the Lark Research Large Cap index (the “Index”) which currently mirrors the S&P 500, turned in another impressive performance in 2021. The Index posted…
Continue reading →Sales Raise Over $1 Billion, Giving the Trust the Means to Retire the 9.75% Senior Notes due 2025 When They Become Callable in June 2022. DHC announced on January 31 that it has entered into a joint venture…
Continue reading →Since 2019, Campbell Soup Company has jettisoned several businesses to focus on its core Meals and Beverage (M&B) and Snacks segments. It has also acquired new growth platforms in Pacific Foods and Snyder’s-Lance. Its $1 billion enterprise cost…
Continue reading →Mistras Group is a leading provider of non-destructive testing (NDT) and related asset protection services that monitor the condition of critical infrastructure and equipment to ensure safe and efficient operations and maximize uptime. The company’s business has suffered…
Continue reading →Toll Brothers reported stronger-than anticipated fiscal 21Q4 results that once again exceeded my and the consensus estimates. Its diluted earnings per share were $3.02, up 95% from $1.55 in 20Q4. My estimate was $2.51 and the consensus estimate…
Continue reading →Organon reported 21Q3 GAAP EPS of $1.38 which exceeded my estimate of $1.31. Revenues were in line with my estimates and operating costs were lower, except for a $25 million increase associated with the acquisition of in-process research…
Continue reading →SJI reported a 21Q3 GAAP net loss of $25.8 million or $0.23 per share, wider than 20Q3’s net loss of $10.3 million or $0.10. On an economic earnings basis, which adjusts for fluctuations in the fair market value…
Continue reading →At its 2021 Securities Analyst Meeting (SAM), the management of Hewlett Packard Enterprise Company (HPE) said that the workplace changes advanced by the pandemic are proving the validity of its edge-to-cloud strategy. HPE has experienced stronger than anticipated…
Continue reading →Diversified Healthcare Trust (DHC) reported 21Q3 normalized FFO of –$0.04 per share, compared with 21Q2’s $0.05. The loss came despite a 40 bp improvement in SHOP occupancy. Operating costs remain high and senior living operators are discounting resident…
Continue reading →Again Lowering EPS Estimates; Reducing 6-12 Month PT and Maintaining Outperform Rating Five Star reported a third quarter net loss of $10.2 million or $0.32 per share, less than the second quarter’s loss of $12.3 million or $0.39…
Continue reading →The housing market has been quite strong since shortly after the onset of the pandemic, fueled by low interest rates, pent-up demand and a strong desire among urban apartment dwellers to escape the coronavirus. New home sales from…
Continue reading →Toll Brothers reported stronger-than anticipated fiscal 21Q3 results that once again exceeded my estimates. Its diluted earnings per share were $1.86, up 71% from $0.59 in 20Q2. My estimate was $1.48 and the consensus estimate was $1.53.
Continue reading →Public Service Enterprise Group held its 2021 Investor Day on Sept. 27, 2021. At the meeting, management offered the following guidance:
Continue reading →SJI’s utility businesses – South Jersey Gas Company (SJG) and Elizabethtown Gas Company (ETG) – are its core growth engines. Representing 70%-80% of consolidated profits, they have grown by pursuing regulatory-approved infrastructure investment programs and gaining customers from…
Continue reading →21Q2 Performance in Line with Expectations; Raising Performance Rating and Lowering Price Target 21Q2 GAAP EPS of $1.68 was lower than 20Q2’s $2.14. Although sales increased 4.5% to $1.6 billion, costs were higher as a result of new…
Continue reading →Progress on Strategic Repositioning; Performance in Line with Expectations; Upgrading Performance Rating; Maintaining Price Target of ~$7.50. DHC reported 21Q2 normalized funds from operations (FFO) of $12.2 million or $0.05 per share, lower than 20Q2’s $0.25, due mostly…
Continue reading →Five Star reported a second quarter net loss of $12.3 million, reversing last year’s $3.0 million net profit. On a per share basis, the loss was $0.39, compared to net income of $0.10 and below my estimate of…
Continue reading →2021 Second Quarter Results in Line with Expectations. Maintaining Neutral Rating. AWK reported 21Q2 EPS of $1.14, up 17.5% from 20Q2. Operating revenues increased 7.3% to $999 million. Operating income rose 5.4% to $330 million. Operating margin eased…
Continue reading →Initiating Coverage with an Outperform Rating. Prospects Beyond 2022 are Favorable. With the acquisitions of Celgene in 2019 and MyoKardia in 2020, BMS has substantially transformed its business and repositioned for growth. Drugs added to the portfolio from…
Continue reading →It has been a year since PSEG announced a strategic review to explore divesting its fossil fuel generating assets. Since then, management has said that it is pleased with the interest shown by potential buyers in its 6,750+…
Continue reading →On May 5, 2021, Bluegreen Vacations Holding Corporation (BVH), formerly known as BBX Capital Corporation, completed the acquisition of the 7% publicly-traded ownership stake of Bluegreen Vacations Corporation (BXG) that it did not already own through a statutory…
Continue reading →The Company Reported Stronger Than Expected 21Q2 Results, But Its Upwardly Revised Guidance Was Somewhat Disappointing. HPE reported fiscal 2021 second quarter GAAP earnings of $0.19 per share, well above its most recent guidance of $0.02-$0.08 per share…
Continue reading →HPE has posted two consecutive quarters of stronger-than-expected results. Although the quarterly figures still lag behind the prior year, the recent strength suggests that its business is rebounding strongly off the bottom. As noted by management, HPE’s business…
Continue reading →In early April, Five Star announced a change in its strategy whereby it will transition out of the management of 108 smaller senior living communities (SLCs) with 7,500 living units (with an average of 69.4 units per community),…
Continue reading →Merck is progressing toward the spin-off of its subsidiary, Organon & Co., which is expected to be completed by the end of the June. Organon will include Merck’s women’s health products, biosimilars and certain established brands, most of…
Continue reading →On April 9, Five Star and DHC announced a restructuring of their management agreement whereby DHC will transition the management of 108 smaller senior living communities (SLCs) with a total of 7,500 units to other operators by the…
Continue reading →In recent weeks, Merck has been following through on its plan to spin-off its subsidiary, Organon & Co., to shareholders. On March 17, it filed its Form 10 registration statement related to the transaction. On March 24, it…
Continue reading →Diversified Healthcare Trust reported 2020 fourth quarter normalized funds from operations (FFO) (my definition) of $15.1 million or $0.06 per share, slightly better than 20Q3, but well below 19Q4. The results were modestly better than I anticipated with…
Continue reading →Citius Pharmaceuticals (CXTR) is a specialty pharmaceutical company focused on the development of four potential products: (1) Mino-Lok, an antibiotic lock solution to treat and salvage infected central venous catheters (“CVCs”) in patients with catheter-related bloodstream infections (“CRBSIs”);…
Continue reading →Vaccination of 90% of Residents Raises Visibility on a Rebound in Occupancy Five Star reported slightly stronger 20Q4 results than anticipated, due primarily to gains on investments held by its captive insurer. Average occupancy across its owned and…
Continue reading →2020 was of course dominated by the impact of the pandemic on the economy and specifically on the revenues and profits of each of the S&P 500 constituents. There was a sharp stock market sell-off in March-April, followed…
Continue reading →Despite Ongoing Uncertainties about the Pandemic, the Economic Recovery and Global Events, the Stock Market is Poised to Move Higher in 2021. The financial markets turned in a stellar performance in 2020, the year of COVID-19, when real…
Continue reading →Yesterday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics estimated that nonfarm payroll employment declined by 140,000 in December. The estimate for November was increased by 135,000. The level of employment for December was therefore virtually unchanged from the November report.
Continue reading →2020 was a surprisingly solid year for housing in light of the pandemic and the havoc that it wreaked in other parts of the economy. December data will not be reported until later this month. I project that…
Continue reading →Diversified Healthcare Trust reported 2020 third quarter normalized funds from operations (FFO) (according to my definition) of $11.0 million or $0.05 per share, well below results for 19Q3 and 20Q2 and also below my projection of $27.8 million…
Continue reading →General Electric reported a 2020 third quarter GAAP loss of $1.16 billion or $0.13 per share on revenues on revenues of $19.4 billion, down 17%. In the 2019 third quarter, the company reported a comparable net loss of…
Continue reading →Shares of GE have underperformed both the broader market and GE’s industrial peer group since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. The weak performance reflects primarily the company’s exposure to the aviation business, which prior to the pandemic…
Continue reading →Despite continuing elevated unemployment and dampened consumer confidence, the housing market has been surprisingly strong in the months following the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. According to the U.S. Commerce Dept., single-family housing starts for August were estimated…
Continue reading →Diversified Healthcare Trust (DHC) reported 2020 second quarter normalized funds from operations (FFO) (according to my definition) of $52.8 million or $0.22 per share, down 33% from $81.1 million or $0.33 per share in the prior year quarter. …
Continue reading →Five Star Senior Living continues to cope with the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on its operations. During the 2020 second quarter, it experienced a 3.8% decline in occupancy from 82.5% to 78.7% across its owned and managed…
Continue reading →Homebuilding stocks have been on a wild ride in 2020. They boomed from the start of the year, rising 19.1% (according to my index of 11 publicly-traded builders) to February 21, handily beating the 3.0% gain on the…
Continue reading →DHC’s share price closed on Thursday (4/9) at $3.51, down 58.4% year-to-date, worse than the peer group average of down 24.7%, but the stock is up from its bottom of $2.00. Most of the losses for DHC occurred…
Continue reading →As noted in a previous post, it is most appropriate to value GE as a single, stand-alone enterprise. Several unifying investment themes support this view:
Continue reading →In April 2015, partially in response to the regulatory restrictions that accompanied GE Capital’s designation as a systemically important financial institution by the Financial Stability Oversight Council, GE adopted the GE Capital Exit Plan, under which it planned…
Continue reading →In my view, the most appropriate way to look at GE’s stock valuation is to consider the company as a single enterprise. In this analysis, I compare its current valuation to peers. My calculations for GE’S enterprise value-to-EBITDA…
Continue reading →Based upon management’s guidance given at General Electric’s 2020 Outlook meeting on March 4th, I project 2020 Industrial Leverage EBITDA of $11.6 billion, up roughly 3% from 2019. Industrial Leverage EBITDA was given in the appendix to the…
Continue reading →Given the complexity of its business mix and financial structure, valuing GE is not an easy exercise even under benign economic conditions. The task is made even more difficult when there is considerable uncertainty about prospects for the…
Continue reading →GE’s stock has been battered during this sell-off, falling much more than the broader market as a whole. Since reaching an intra-day peak of $13.26 on February 12 (roughly one month ago), the stock has fallen 40.8% to…
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