Risk/Reward archive
Toll Brothers’ 24Q4 EPS was $4.63, up 12.6% from 23Q4’s $4.11. My estimate was $4.24. Consensus was $4.34. Deliveries of 3,431 units increased 24.5% YOY. The average sales price per unit fell 11.3% to $950,000, mostly on sales…
Continue reading →Toll Brothers’ 24Q3 EPS was $3.60, down 3.5% from 23Q3’s $3.73. My estimate was $3.18. Consensus was $3.31. Deliveries of 2,814 units increased 11.5% YOY. The average sales price per unit fell 8.6% to $968,200. Adjusted gross margin…
Continue reading →Toll Brothers’ 24Q2 EPS was $4.55, up 60% from 23Q2’s $2.85. Excluding a $1.17 profit from a land sale, 24Q2 EPS was $3.38. My estimate was $3.06. Deliveries of 2,641 units increased 6% YOY. The average sales price…
Continue reading →Toll Brothers’ 23Q4 EPS was $4.11, down 27% from 22Q4’s $5.63, but above my estimate of $3.51 (and the consensus of $3.72). 22Q4 included a $103 million ($0.91 per share) benefit from a litigation settlement. Revenues fell 18.6%…
Continue reading →Toll Brothers’ 23Q2 EPS was $2.85, up 54% from 22Q2’s $1.85 and above my estimate of $1.87. Revenues increased 10.1% to $2.51 billion and exceeded my estimate of $2.17 billion. Deliveries of 2,492 units increased 3.5% exceeding management’s…
Continue reading →Toll Brothers’ 23Q1 EPS was $1.70, up 38% from 22Q1’s $1.24 and above my estimate of $1.37. Revenues decreased 0.6% to $1.78 billion, below my $1.80 billion. Deliveries of 1,826 units fell 5.3%, but topped my estimate. The…
Continue reading →Housing market data from the U.S. Commerce Dept. and others show sales and production leveled off and even recovered a bit in the final months of 2022 and first two months of 2023. The seasonally-adjusted annualized rate (SAAR)…
Continue reading →Toll Brothers reported fiscal 22Q4 results that were much stronger than I anticipated. 22Q4 diluted earnings per share were $5.63 up 86% from $3.02 in 21Q4 and better than my estimate of $3.93. Excluding a $140 million (estimated…
Continue reading →Housing market data from the U.S. Commerce Dept. and others show sales and production falling at a rapid rate. The seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) of single-family housing starts and building permits has fallen for eight consecutive months…
Continue reading →The average rate on the 30-year mortgage has risen above 6.00% in response to the latest hike in the Fed Funds target rate. Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey pegged the average rate at 6.29% this week. The…
Continue reading →Toll Brothers’ 22Q3 EPS was $2.35, up 25.7% from 21Q3’s $1.87 and above my estimate of $2.22. Revenues increased 10.6% to $2.49 billion, slightly below my projections. Deliveries of 2,414 units fell 7.1%, more than expected, but the…
Continue reading →Despite an accelerating slide in housing sales and production following this year’s rise in mortgage rates, my homebuilder stock price index has performed in line with its benchmarks since April. At current prices, homebuilding stocks trade at less…
Continue reading →Homebuilding stocks have had a rough 2022. Year-to-date (through 4/12), my equal-weighted index of 11 publicly-traded U.S. homebuilders has fallen 34.8%. That compares with declines of 7.7% in the S&P 500 and 11.5% in the Russell 2000. Following…
Continue reading →Since my last report on December 9, 2021, Toll’s stock has fallen 26.3%, much more than the S&P Mid-Cap 400’s 2.6% decline. As I noted back then, shares of Toll and other homebuilders were ripe for a correction…
Continue reading →Toll Brothers reported stronger-than anticipated fiscal 21Q4 results that once again exceeded my and the consensus estimates. Its diluted earnings per share were $3.02, up 95% from $1.55 in 20Q4. My estimate was $2.51 and the consensus estimate…
Continue reading →Toll Brothers reported stronger-than anticipated fiscal 21Q3 results that once again exceeded my estimates. Its diluted earnings per share were $1.86, up 71% from $0.59 in 20Q2. My estimate was $1.48 and the consensus estimate was $1.53.
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