Risk/Reward archive
Toll Brothers’ 24Q4 EPS was $4.63, up 12.6% from 23Q4’s $4.11. My estimate was $4.24. Consensus was $4.34. Deliveries of 3,431 units increased 24.5% YOY. The average sales price per unit fell 11.3% to $950,000, mostly on sales…
Continue reading →Toll Brothers’ 23Q2 EPS was $2.85, up 54% from 22Q2’s $1.85 and above my estimate of $1.87. Revenues increased 10.1% to $2.51 billion and exceeded my estimate of $2.17 billion. Deliveries of 2,492 units increased 3.5% exceeding management’s…
Continue reading →Toll Brothers’ 23Q1 EPS was $1.70, up 38% from 22Q1’s $1.24 and above my estimate of $1.37. Revenues decreased 0.6% to $1.78 billion, below my $1.80 billion. Deliveries of 1,826 units fell 5.3%, but topped my estimate. The…
Continue reading →Housing market data from the U.S. Commerce Dept. and others show sales and production leveled off and even recovered a bit in the final months of 2022 and first two months of 2023. The seasonally-adjusted annualized rate (SAAR)…
Continue reading →Toll Brothers reported fiscal 22Q4 results that were much stronger than I anticipated. 22Q4 diluted earnings per share were $5.63 up 86% from $3.02 in 21Q4 and better than my estimate of $3.93. Excluding a $140 million (estimated…
Continue reading →Housing market data from the U.S. Commerce Dept. and others show sales and production falling at a rapid rate. The seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) of single-family housing starts and building permits has fallen for eight consecutive months…
Continue reading →The average rate on the 30-year mortgage has risen above 6.00% in response to the latest hike in the Fed Funds target rate. Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey pegged the average rate at 6.29% this week. The…
Continue reading →Toll Brothers’ 22Q3 EPS was $2.35, up 25.7% from 21Q3’s $1.87 and above my estimate of $2.22. Revenues increased 10.6% to $2.49 billion, slightly below my projections. Deliveries of 2,414 units fell 7.1%, more than expected, but the…
Continue reading →Despite an accelerating slide in housing sales and production following this year’s rise in mortgage rates, my homebuilder stock price index has performed in line with its benchmarks since April. At current prices, homebuilding stocks trade at less…
Continue reading →Homebuilding stocks have had a rough 2022. Year-to-date (through 4/12), my equal-weighted index of 11 publicly-traded U.S. homebuilders has fallen 34.8%. That compares with declines of 7.7% in the S&P 500 and 11.5% in the Russell 2000. Following…
Continue reading →Since my last report on December 9, 2021, Toll’s stock has fallen 26.3%, much more than the S&P Mid-Cap 400’s 2.6% decline. As I noted back then, shares of Toll and other homebuilders were ripe for a correction…
Continue reading →Toll Brothers reported stronger-than anticipated fiscal 21Q4 results that once again exceeded my and the consensus estimates. Its diluted earnings per share were $3.02, up 95% from $1.55 in 20Q4. My estimate was $2.51 and the consensus estimate…
Continue reading →The housing market has been quite strong since shortly after the onset of the pandemic, fueled by low interest rates, pent-up demand and a strong desire among urban apartment dwellers to escape the coronavirus. New home sales from…
Continue reading →Toll Brothers reported stronger-than anticipated fiscal 21Q3 results that once again exceeded my estimates. Its diluted earnings per share were $1.86, up 71% from $0.59 in 20Q2. My estimate was $1.48 and the consensus estimate was $1.53.
Continue reading →2020 was of course dominated by the impact of the pandemic on the economy and specifically on the revenues and profits of each of the S&P 500 constituents. There was a sharp stock market sell-off in March-April, followed…
Continue reading →2020 was a surprisingly solid year for housing in light of the pandemic and the havoc that it wreaked in other parts of the economy. December data will not be reported until later this month. I project that…
Continue reading →Despite continuing elevated unemployment and dampened consumer confidence, the housing market has been surprisingly strong in the months following the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. According to the U.S. Commerce Dept., single-family housing starts for August were estimated…
Continue reading →Homebuilding stocks have been on a wild ride in 2020. They boomed from the start of the year, rising 19.1% (according to my index of 11 publicly-traded builders) to February 21, handily beating the 3.0% gain on the…
Continue reading →2019 was a solid year for U.S. housing. While still subject to modest revisions, government figures show that new residential sales increased 10.4% from an estimated 617,000 units in 2018 to 681,000 units in 2019. Single-family housing starts…
Continue reading →Homebuilding stocks have been the best performing of the 150-odd sectors in the Dow Jones U.S. Total Market Index, up 44.4% over the past 12 months as of November 8. Last year, they declined sharply in the face…
Continue reading →A typical analysis from policy makers, like the Federal Reserve, points out that activity in the housing market has declined so far this year; but that assertion focuses primarily on housing starts. A more complete picture from the…
Continue reading →As anticipated, the market for new single-family houses rebounded from a steep 2018 fourth quarter slide to post modest gains in the 2019 first quarter against fairly strong 2018 first quarter levels. The primary driver of the housing…
Continue reading →The outlook for housing (or more precisely, sentiment about the outlook for housing) has improved in recent weeks, primarily because of the decline in mortgage rates. The average rate on the 30-year mortgage has fallen by 57 basis…
Continue reading →It has certainly been a rough year for homebuilding stocks, but not nearly so bad for the housing market. The Lark Research Homebuilder Stock Price Index, an equal weighted average of eleven publicly-traded homebuilder stocks, was down 29.2%…
Continue reading →2018 has been rough for homebuilding stocks. The Lark Research Homebuilder Stock Index, which is an equal-weighted measure of the price performance of ten publicly-traded homebuilders, was down 19.9% year-to-date through August 3rd, far worse than the gains…
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