Risk/Reward archive
The housing market has been quite strong since shortly after the onset of the pandemic, fueled by low interest rates, pent-up demand and a strong desire among urban apartment dwellers to escape the coronavirus. New home sales from…
Continue reading →Toll Brothers reported stronger-than anticipated fiscal 21Q3 results that once again exceeded my estimates. Its diluted earnings per share were $1.86, up 71% from $0.59 in 20Q2. My estimate was $1.48 and the consensus estimate was $1.53.
Continue reading →Public Service Enterprise Group held its 2021 Investor Day on Sept. 27, 2021. At the meeting, management offered the following guidance:
Continue reading →SJI’s utility businesses – South Jersey Gas Company (SJG) and Elizabethtown Gas Company (ETG) – are its core growth engines. Representing 70%-80% of consolidated profits, they have grown by pursuing regulatory-approved infrastructure investment programs and gaining customers from…
Continue reading →21Q2 Performance in Line with Expectations; Raising Performance Rating and Lowering Price Target 21Q2 GAAP EPS of $1.68 was lower than 20Q2’s $2.14. Although sales increased 4.5% to $1.6 billion, costs were higher as a result of new…
Continue reading →Progress on Strategic Repositioning; Performance in Line with Expectations; Upgrading Performance Rating; Maintaining Price Target of ~$7.50. DHC reported 21Q2 normalized funds from operations (FFO) of $12.2 million or $0.05 per share, lower than 20Q2’s $0.25, due mostly…
Continue reading →Five Star reported a second quarter net loss of $12.3 million, reversing last year’s $3.0 million net profit. On a per share basis, the loss was $0.39, compared to net income of $0.10 and below my estimate of…
Continue reading →2021 Second Quarter Results in Line with Expectations. Maintaining Neutral Rating. AWK reported 21Q2 EPS of $1.14, up 17.5% from 20Q2. Operating revenues increased 7.3% to $999 million. Operating income rose 5.4% to $330 million. Operating margin eased…
Continue reading →Initiating Coverage with an Outperform Rating. Prospects Beyond 2022 are Favorable. With the acquisitions of Celgene in 2019 and MyoKardia in 2020, BMS has substantially transformed its business and repositioned for growth. Drugs added to the portfolio from…
Continue reading →It has been a year since PSEG announced a strategic review to explore divesting its fossil fuel generating assets. Since then, management has said that it is pleased with the interest shown by potential buyers in its 6,750+…
Continue reading →On May 5, 2021, Bluegreen Vacations Holding Corporation (BVH), formerly known as BBX Capital Corporation, completed the acquisition of the 7% publicly-traded ownership stake of Bluegreen Vacations Corporation (BXG) that it did not already own through a statutory…
Continue reading →The Company Reported Stronger Than Expected 21Q2 Results, But Its Upwardly Revised Guidance Was Somewhat Disappointing. HPE reported fiscal 2021 second quarter GAAP earnings of $0.19 per share, well above its most recent guidance of $0.02-$0.08 per share…
Continue reading →HPE has posted two consecutive quarters of stronger-than-expected results. Although the quarterly figures still lag behind the prior year, the recent strength suggests that its business is rebounding strongly off the bottom. As noted by management, HPE’s business…
Continue reading →In early April, Five Star announced a change in its strategy whereby it will transition out of the management of 108 smaller senior living communities (SLCs) with 7,500 living units (with an average of 69.4 units per community),…
Continue reading →Merck is progressing toward the spin-off of its subsidiary, Organon & Co., which is expected to be completed by the end of the June. Organon will include Merck’s women’s health products, biosimilars and certain established brands, most of…
Continue reading →On April 9, Five Star and DHC announced a restructuring of their management agreement whereby DHC will transition the management of 108 smaller senior living communities (SLCs) with a total of 7,500 units to other operators by the…
Continue reading →In recent weeks, Merck has been following through on its plan to spin-off its subsidiary, Organon & Co., to shareholders. On March 17, it filed its Form 10 registration statement related to the transaction. On March 24, it…
Continue reading →Diversified Healthcare Trust reported 2020 fourth quarter normalized funds from operations (FFO) (my definition) of $15.1 million or $0.06 per share, slightly better than 20Q3, but well below 19Q4. The results were modestly better than I anticipated with…
Continue reading →Citius Pharmaceuticals (CXTR) is a specialty pharmaceutical company focused on the development of four potential products: (1) Mino-Lok, an antibiotic lock solution to treat and salvage infected central venous catheters (“CVCs”) in patients with catheter-related bloodstream infections (“CRBSIs”);…
Continue reading →Vaccination of 90% of Residents Raises Visibility on a Rebound in Occupancy Five Star reported slightly stronger 20Q4 results than anticipated, due primarily to gains on investments held by its captive insurer. Average occupancy across its owned and…
Continue reading →2020 was of course dominated by the impact of the pandemic on the economy and specifically on the revenues and profits of each of the S&P 500 constituents. There was a sharp stock market sell-off in March-April, followed…
Continue reading →2020 was a surprisingly solid year for housing in light of the pandemic and the havoc that it wreaked in other parts of the economy. December data will not be reported until later this month. I project that…
Continue reading →Diversified Healthcare Trust reported 2020 third quarter normalized funds from operations (FFO) (according to my definition) of $11.0 million or $0.05 per share, well below results for 19Q3 and 20Q2 and also below my projection of $27.8 million…
Continue reading →General Electric reported a 2020 third quarter GAAP loss of $1.16 billion or $0.13 per share on revenues on revenues of $19.4 billion, down 17%. In the 2019 third quarter, the company reported a comparable net loss of…
Continue reading →Shares of GE have underperformed both the broader market and GE’s industrial peer group since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. The weak performance reflects primarily the company’s exposure to the aviation business, which prior to the pandemic…
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