Risk/Reward archive
Based upon management’s guidance given at General Electric’s 2020 Outlook meeting on March 4th, I project 2020 Industrial Leverage EBITDA of $11.6 billion, up roughly 3% from 2019. Industrial Leverage EBITDA was given in the appendix to the…
Continue reading →Given the complexity of its business mix and financial structure, valuing GE is not an easy exercise even under benign economic conditions. The task is made even more difficult when there is considerable uncertainty about prospects for the…
Continue reading →GE’s stock has been battered during this sell-off, falling much more than the broader market as a whole. Since reaching an intra-day peak of $13.26 on February 12 (roughly one month ago), the stock has fallen 40.8% to…
Continue reading →On Thursday (2/21), Brightcove (BCOV) reported somewhat disappointing 2019 fourth quarter performance and guidance which caused its stock to plummet 12.8% on the open and end the day down 7.2% (from the previous close). Yet, buyers emerged quickly…
Continue reading →Under new CEO Steve Westhoven, the business portfolio of New Jersey Resources (NJR) has evolved as it typically does in response to changes in its operating environment. Its regulated utility operations, New Jersey Natural Gas (NJNG) and its…
Continue reading →A key change at Brightcove since my last post has been the turnover at the top. In August 2017, after three consecutive quarters of earnings misses, Dave Mendels, who had served as CEO for more than four years,…
Continue reading →At its 2019 Securities Analyst meeting (SAM) held in New York City on October 23, the senior management of Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE) said that the company was poised to enter the third phase of its evolution: pivoting…
Continue reading →SNH has set a goal of $900 million in announced or closed asset sales in 2019. With more than nine months of the year gone, it has completed only $119.1 million in asset sales and has an estimated…
Continue reading →The five publicly-traded REITs that are managed by the RMR Group, Inc. (RMR), a Newton, Mass.-based property manager, have often traded at significant discounts to their peers. The discount has been attributed to the nature of the relationship…
Continue reading →The cover story in this week’s Sunday New York Times Magazine is “What Really Caused the Deadly Crashes of the Boeing 737 Max?“. While acknowledging that malfunctions caused the crashes, it also documents in detail the errors made…
Continue reading →On August 15, 2019, Harry Markopolos, who gained fame as the person who exposed the fraud perpetrated by Bernie Madoff, released a 175-page report entitled “General Electric, A Bigger Fraud Than Enron.” GE’s stock fell 11.3% on the…
Continue reading →In response to the financial difficulties of its primary tenant, Five Star Senior Living (FVE), Senior Housing Properties Trust (SNH) has been forced to negotiate a change in the structure of their business relationship. Specifically, SNH has agreed…
Continue reading →Five Star Senior Living (FVE) and its landlord Senior Housing Properties Trust (SNH) have previously announced a restructuring of their commercial arrangements whereby SNH will cancel the five master leases that cover 181 senior living and skilled nursing…
Continue reading →On June 20, Merck held an investor day, its first in five years, to highlight its goals and objectives and provide a broad perspective on its five-year performance outlook. Although its blockbuster cancer treatment, KEYTRUDA (pembrolizumab), has been…
Continue reading →Shares of Bluegreen Vacations Corporation (BXG) received a double whammy in May from the parent company BBX Capital’s (BBX) decision to back out of its offer to buyback BXG’s public float – equal to 10% of outstanding shares…
Continue reading →The net income and EPS figures for the 2019 first quarter for Baker Hughes, a GE company, are confusing as presented. The company reported net income (before income or loss allocated to the non-controlling interest, which is GE)…
Continue reading →AT&T reported diluted EPS of $0.56 per share, down from $0.75 a year ago. Non-GAAP adjusted EPS of $0.86 per share was up slightly from $0.85 last year and in line with consensus estimates. The difference between GAAP…
Continue reading →Arch reported 18Q1 diluted EPS of $3.91, up from $2.75 in 17Q1 and well ahead of the consensus estimate of $2.71. The gain in earnings came despite a 3.5% decline in revenues to $555.2 million, primarily because of…
Continue reading →The company reported diluted EPS of $0.24 per share, up from $0.21 a year ago. Sales declined 1% to $31.4 million due mostly to a non-repeat of a large order from a distributor who was launching a first…
Continue reading →Earnings of $1.80 per share included a $0.21 charge related to merchant fees litigation. Excluding that charge, AXP’s 2019 first quarter EPS would have been $2.01, up from $1.86 a year ago and in line with market expectations. …
Continue reading →After reporting a 2018 fourth quarter loss of $23 million, negative EBITDA for the quarter of $12.5 million and a $51 million drawdown on its bank credit facility, it is clear that Five Star, SNH’s largest tenant, must…
Continue reading →General Electric (GE) posted 2018 fourth quarter results that were viewed positively by the financial community primarily because there were no new major negative surprises. Although management gave an update on the company’s recent progress and certain aspects…
Continue reading →American Water Works Company (AWK) has delivered superior operating, financial and stock price performance over the past eight years. Its 2018 performance did not match the eight year average in either absolute or relative terms. However, management is…
Continue reading →2018 was a rough year for investors in Acme United Corporation’s (ACU) stock, including CEO Walter Johnsen who owns 15% of the outstanding shares. ACU’s 2018 total return was -38%, worse than the Zack’s Micro Cap Index’s 17%…
Continue reading →Despite progress recorded in both its restructuring and its financial performance, HPE's shares underperformed the market. Several factors contributed to the underperformance; but the shares should have upside if the company can deliver on its guidance.
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